Patrick Moonen

Low chances of a major market correction as behavioural dynamics improve

08/08/2018 Patrick Moonen

Improving market dynamics, including better investor sentiment, low positioning and positive price momentum, means the chances of a major equities correction of 10%-plus are low. The likelihood is lessened further by strong corporate fundamentals, as demonstrated by one of the best US earnings seasons in Q2 of the past years; good macro data pointing to consolidation at a healthy level; gradual and predictable central bank policies; and the start of targeted Chinese easing to counter the growth slowdown and negative trade impact.

Low chances of a major market correction as behavioural dynamics improve

08/08/2018 Patrick Moonen

Improving market dynamics, including better investor sentiment, low positioning and positive price momentum, means the chances of a major equities correction of 10%-plus are low. The likelihood is lessened further by strong corporate fundamentals, as demonstrated by one of the best US earnings seasons in Q2 of the past years; good macro data pointing to consolidation at a healthy level; gradual and predictable central bank policies; and the start of targeted Chinese easing to counter the growth slowdown and negative trade impact.

Market correction won’t derail economy

12/02/2018 Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen

The market correction that began two weeks ago and accelerated in the past week followed a remarkably calm period that lasted almost two years. We view the recent price movements as an overdue correction triggered by a shift in market views concerning risks of inflation and central banks’ hiking paths. Sentiment has meanwhile shifted from very optimistic to neutral with a pessimistic bias.

Biggest US stock market correction since 2011

06/02/2018 Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen

On February 5, US equities had their biggest correction since August 2011. We see the decline in the equity market primarily as a technical correction and not caused by a change in the underlying fundamentals.

Biggest US stock market correction since 2011

06/02/2018 Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen

On February 5, US equities had their biggest correction since August 2011. We see the decline in the equity market primarily as a technical correction and not caused by a change in the underlying fundamentals.

2017 – The year of reflation, says NN IP

16/11/2016 Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen

We expect that: • Political uncertainty will be a dominant factor in 2017, but opportunities are ample • Rotation towards cyclical sectors in equity markets is likely to persist • More fiscal stimulus and rising inflation (expectations) might well add to the upward trend in global bond yields • Emerging markets recovery may continue, but with a more protectionist policy course in the US as a risk

Investors more concerned with inflation and Fed rate than with US elections

03/11/2016 Patrick Moonen

• Investors are more concerned with inflation or a possible interest rate hike in December than with the outcome of the US elections • Still, an overwhelming majority (84%) of institutional investors believe that a Trump presidency would have a negative impact on global equity markets • Overall risk appetite was up 3.9% in October after a drop of 7.2% in August(1)

Risk appetite falls as reality of Brexit sets in for investors

19/10/2016 Patrick Moonen

• Majority of investors go “risk-off” for first time since October 2014 • Overall risk appetite amongst investors falls from +5.3% in March to -7.2% • Brexit viewed as the biggest risk to investment portfolios

Equity strategies remain most popular with investors in Q3, NN IP’s Risk Rotation Index(1) finds

10/10/2016 Patrick Moonen

• 37% of investors see equities as favourable over the next six to 12 months in terms of risk/return(1) • Most attractive geographical region for equity investing is emerging markets, with 29% citing it as the most attractive(1)

Eurozone equity risk premium much higher than the US premium despite ECB efforts, says NN IP

29/08/2016 Patrick Moonen

• Implied ‘Cost of equity’ is 80 basis points higher in the Eurozone than in the US • Extra return required by investors to invest in Eurozone is highest since 2012

About the author

Patrick Moonen

Patrick Moonen

Principal Strategist

Experience since 1989

Business Experience

2018-to date Patrick is Principal Strategist

2015-2018 Head of the Macro & Strategy team within the Multi-Asset Boutique of NN Investment Partners. He is responsible for tactical sector, region, size & style call within the top-down global equity strategy

2007-2015 Senior Strategist within the Multi-Asset boutique at NN IP

2002-2007 Head of Asset Allocation & Marketing Support Team in Brussels at ING IM

1994-2002 Portfolio Manager of Institutional Mutual Funds & Discretionary Mandates, at ING IM

1989-1994 Financial analyst, BBL Asset Management (now NN Investment Partners)

Qualifications

Junior Management Program at the Vlerickschool for Management in Ghent in 1995

MSc in Applied Economic Sciences from the from the Antwerp University in 1988

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