Improved conditions for fixed income spreads

15/02/19 Pieter Jansen

The global macro and monetary policy environment has become more supportive for fixed income spreads. Corporate bonds and emerging market debt now offer better compensation for risks. This environment can prevail as long as growth stays sluggish and monetary policy stays supportive.

Solid returns for EM corporates after tough 2018

14/02/19 Joep Huntjens

Overweight China and Brazil, underweight Mexico. Turkey looks like one to watch. Oil prices should rebound, supporting smaller E&Ps.

German economy’s second-half slowdown is likely just a soft patch

14/02/19 Willem Verhagen

The German economic slowdown in the second half of 2018 is likely to be just a soft patch. The strong labour market, fiscal expansion and the rebound from incidental factors should keep growth in positive territory for most of this year.

Emerging markets currency to strengthen as dollar declines in 2019

12/02/19 Lewis Jones

After unforeseen headwinds last year, we have a constructive outlook. Argentina and Turkey set to improve as worries subside. We see rallying EM currencies against a declining dollar.

Brighter outlook for EMD HC in 2019

08/02/19 Marco Ruijer

Brighter forecast for 2019, although geo-political risks remain. We see scope for a constructive outcome for US-China trade negotiations. We have a preference for high-beta and Gulf countries.

Who bears the cost of climate risk - and when?

07/02/19 Adrie Heinsbroek

Climate risk may be far more short-term than generally believed. An investment process that incorporates environmental, social and governance considerations enhances the investor’s awareness of climate risk, and is more adaptable to changing circumstances. This makes portfolios built with an eye to ESG factors more future-proof.

Zambia, Ivory Coast, Pakistan and Argentina set to strengthen

06/02/19 Marco Ruijer

FMD set to continue relative outperformance. Commodity risks could hit weaker exporting countries. One Belt, One Road offers cheap financing but is a double-edged sword.

Stay overweight EMD on solid fundamentals

01/02/19 Marcelo Assalin

2018 was a challenging year for all risky assets including EMD as a negative combination of risk factors affected investor sentiment, at a time when valuations were at unattractive levels after the strong performance of 2016 and 2017. Rising US yields, a strengthening US dollar and expectations of slower global growth amid concerns about an escalating trade war between the US and China created a toxic environment for risky assets. Idiosyncratic noise in some important EM countries such as Argentina and Turkey, a heavy and uncertain EM election cycle and negative headlines in Europe (particularly related to Brexit and Italy) all fuelled negative sentiment. We believe that most of these risk factors will dissipate in 2019.

The Powell Put

31/01/19 Willem Verhagen

Fed revises its outlook for rate guidance and balance sheet in a surprisingly dovish shift. Worries about overheating of the domestic economy have abated for now; Fed is now more prepared to take action against downside risks in the economy and the markets. A more dovish Fed could lead to upward pressure on the euro and the yen, which may force the ECB and the BoJ to keep their rates lower for longer.

NN Investment Partners sees moderate 5-7% equity returns in 2019

22/01/19 Patrick Moonen

NN Investment Partners expects global earnings will fall from 16% but remain positive. Low valuations and high risk aversion offer support to the market.

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